FOMC week: what the dot-plot tells us about June.
Three scenarios, one base case, and a single SPY level that decides between them. Written Sunday night for the week ahead.
Macro snapshot
Two-year yields closed Friday at 4.41%, ten-year at 4.32%, the curve still flat-and-irritated. DXY is rolling over but slowly. The week's setup is one of those where the macro is doing nothing dramatic and that, paradoxically, is the whole story.
Powell speaks Wednesday. The dot-plot is the event; everything else this week is texture around it.
This week's catalysts
SPY levels & scenarios
Three scenarios. We pick one at the open Wednesday based on the dot.
552.10 is the line that decides. Anything else is texture.
Crypto pulse
BTC is range-bound 96.4–101.2k. Correlation to SPY this week is the lowest 30-day reading since March, which means crypto headlines should not move our SPY plan. We watch, we don't trade off it.
Mindset note
FOMC days are not a test of conviction. They're a test of patience. The opening 90 minutes Wednesday will be the entire week's noise compressed into one window. The trade, almost always, is after.
Process check
- Did you mark 552.10 on your chart before the bell?
- Did you size for a 0.7% account-risk stop?
- Did you write the trigger in your journal Tuesday night?
- Did you sit out the first five minutes Wednesday?
Not financial advice. Education only. Mock data shown in tables for illustrative purposes. Dark Pools Trading LLC.